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YORKVILLE in Calgary

For those of you who are keeping up with new developments in Calgary .. well here you go … Wow! …. Any thoughts? … click the link below! ..

Next stop: Yorkville

5 THINGS ABOUT FEBRUARY

Mar 5, 2016  Jamie Zachary 

Calgary’s real estate market, by the numbers

Calgary’s resale residential housing market in February was virtually unchanged from previous months, highlighted by sales declines, inventory gains and, ultimately, price softness.

CREB®Now breaks down some of the key statistics to come out of CREB®’s monthly housing summary.

$445,000
The benchmark price for a home in Calgary last month was $445,000, a 0.6 per cent decline over January and 3.5 per cent lower than levels recorded last year.

By sector, the detached benchmark price of $504,400 represented a one per cent drop from last month and 3.2 per cent decline from the same time last year. In the attached category, the benchmark price of $338,900 was off 1.9 per cent from last month and 2.8 per cent from February 2015. Lastly, the apartment sector saw its benchmark price fall by 0.6 per cent from last month, and 5.3 per cent from last year, to $283,600.

1,127
Home sales in the city continued to drop in February, declining by 6.6 per cent from the same time last year to 1,127 units. The detached and attached sectors posted similar numbers, falling by 6.6 and 6.8 per cent respectively, while the apartment sector saw a 22 per cent decline.

2,906
New listings in February totaled 2,906 units, a one per cent decline from the same time last year. When combined with soft sales, active inventory increased by 2.7 per cent to 2,906 units, while months of supply jumped by 10 per cent to 5.04. Months of supply represents the amount of time it would take to sell the current inventory on the market.

6.8
The attached sector actually posted an increase in sales activity last month, increasing by 6.8 per cent to 268 units. CREB® attributed the increase to an extra day in February. It also noted overall activity in the sector remained higher than February lows in 2009.

1.1
Sales in the areas around Calgary also increased by 1.1 per cent to 274 units last month compared to 271 units sold during the same period in 2015. New listings, meanwhile, decreased by 2.54 per cent to 729 units, yet not enough to offset an 8.4 per cent increase in active inventory. As a result, the benchmark price fell by 2.2 per cent from last month, and 2.8 per cent from last year, to $423,900. The surrounding area includes the Rockyview and Foothills regions, Airdrie and other active areas
around Calgary.

HOUSE PRICES TO EASE IN 2ND HALF

CREB® forecasts
Continued weakness in housing demand will limit downward pressure on supply levels and cause prices to ease in the second half of the year, CREB® said in its 2015 mid-year forecast. Despite this anticipated retraction, Calgary’s benchmark prices are only expected to decline by less than one per cent on an annual basis.
“Further job losses are expected in the second half of the year,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “These employment changes, combined with overall weakness and slower than anticipated recovery of oil prices, are expected to keep housing demand relatively weak for the rest of 2015. However, with the initial shock of oil price declines having dissipated, the pullback in sales activity in the second quarter is not expected to be as dramatic as the first part of the year,” said Lurie.
Overall sales activity in Calgary is forecasted to total 19,798 in 2015, a 22 per cent decline relative to last year, but only six per cent lower than average activity over the past five years.
Dramatic swings in new listings during the first half of the year caused inventory levels to rise, but by June, they remained below previous highs. Over the second half of the year, inventory levels traditionally ease as we move toward the fall and winter markets. However, this year housing supply levels are expected to remain relatively elevated due to improved selection in the rental markets, completion of projects under construction, and an easing in the rate of decline in resale new listings.
While some price moderation is expected moving forward, it should be noted that it’s not going to be the double-digit decline that some have suggested. In part, this is related to the limited supply in the market moving into this next cycle. Also, the forecasted pullback in employment and migration is not going to be as severe as what occurred last time we recorded significant price declines. The City of Calgary residential benchmark price is expected to average $448,354 for 2015, a modest 0.20 per cent decline over the previous year.
“It’s a two sided coin when talking about pricing for buyers and sellers,” said CREB® president Corinne Lyall. “Some buyers have the expectation that they will get significant price reductions in this market, but that’s not always the case. In some areas, supply levels are more balanced with demand and that creates price stability. On the other hand, in most situations, it will be the sellers who need to adjust expectations, particularly if they have to compete with a large amount of comparable product in the neighbourhood.”
While slower demand is impacting all sectors of the market, the apartment sector is expected to record the largest pull-back in both sales and price growth in the second half. Challenges in this segment are linked to the rising supply in competing markets. There is more selection is the detached and attached segments, which makes it difficult to attract buyers. Sellers also faced added competition from new apartment units and increased selection in the rental market.
Meanwhile, activity in the detached segments will continue to vary based on price and location. Continued weakness in demand relative to supply levels, particularly in the higher price ranges, are expected to cause aggregate detached benchmark home prices to decline in the second half of this year. However, annual prices are expected to remain relatively unchanged compared to last year. Overall, detached sales are expected to total 12,105 units in 2015, a 19.8 per cent decline over last year.
“It’s important for active housing consumers to understand what type of comparable property is available by product type, community and price range,” said Lyall. “While some degree of competition exists in every market condition, most sellers in the current environment will need to take extra care in setting realistic expectations to attract a good crop of potential buyers. This kind of smart pricing may encourage buyers who are sitting on the sidelines to consider entering the market if they are in a position to do so.”
As with any market forecast, there are several factors that could influence the outlook. On the upside, if there is no further deterioration in the economic climate, it’s possible that the pullback in housing demand could be less severe. In this scenario, potential buyers who are in the market may decide to take advantage of higher supply levels and overlook short-term risks in favour of the positive long-term outlook. This possibility could keep market conditions relatively balanced in the second half and prevent any further price declines.
“Ultimately, what happens to prices will depend on supply levels and how much they go up or down against demand,” said Lurie. “The duration of this economic downturn and the resulting job loss will determine which direction supply will go in the months ahead.”

JUNE SALES CONSISTENT

Despite the 18 per cent year-over-year decline in June home sales, for a total of 2,183 units, transaction levels remain only five per cent below the 10 year average for June and three per cent above levels over the past five years.

“We’ve seen less concern from consumers lately,” said CREB® president Corinne Lyall. “One of the main reasons is that we haven’t seen the worst case scenarios play out in the energy and housing sectors.”   “Consumers who were waiting for wide-spread price declines have been surprised to see that it just hasn’t happened yet, and so they’ve decided to take advantage of the improved selection and lower lending rates,” said Lyall.   The level of new listings that came on the market in June totaled 3,122 units, resulting in the second month of elevated absorption rates, which placed downward pressure on inventory levels. The overall months of supply continues to remain balanced at 2.3 months.

With conditions remaining relatively stable in June, there was minimal pressure on home prices. The city-wide benchmark price totaled $455,400, a respective monthly and year-over-year gain of 0.29 and 0.13 per cent.

“Even though city-wide prices were essentially unchanged in June, it’s important to note that activity can vary significantly depending on community, property type and price range,” said Lyall. “Every transaction has its own unique features, which is why we always encourage consumers to discuss these differences with local experts.”

Second quarter results pointed towards more stability in the market. The year-over-year decline in sales activity eased from 32 per cent in the first quarter to 22 per cent in the second quarter.  Meanwhile, the level of pullback of new listings outweighed the gains recorded in the first quarter, resulting in a year-to-date decline of nearly eight per cent.

While both sales and new listings have slowed for each property type within the city, the apartment sector continues to report the weakest absorption rates.   The weaker rates in this sector are now impacting prices. Despite last month’s improvement in price, the second quarter benchmark price was 0.81 per cent below levels recorded last year and 0.93 per cent below first quarter figures. Year-to-date unadjusted apartment averages continue to remain 1.65 per cent above last year’s levels.

In the detached segment, benchmark prices totaled $515,500 in June, slightly higher than last month and 0.4 per cent higher than June 2014 prices. Meanwhile, the year-to-date benchmark price for detached properties remained 3.44 per cent above last year’s figures.

Against this backdrop, the year-to-date average and median detached home price for Calgary has reported declines of 2.26 and 1.54 per cent city-wide. This doesn’t come as a surprise, given that the share of sales activity has declined in the higher price ranges.   “The housing market is showing some signs of stability right now,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.  “However, there are several risk factors that could influence the market in the second half of the year,” said Lurie. “Many of these factors will be addressed in CREB®’s mid-year forecast update, which will be released at the end of July.”

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Apartment Listing in Windsor Park

CLICK THE LINK BELOW TO SEE THIS LISTING

http://homesite.obeo.com/Viewer/Default.aspx?tourid=1035182

MARKET MOVES TOWARD …..

Market moves toward balanced conditions
Calgary housing prices change direction in May For the first time since December 2014, Calgary’s residential unadjusted benchmark prices improved over the previous month. Within the city of Calgary, housing prices totaled $454,100 in May, a monthly and year-over-year increase of 0.55 and 0.96 per cent.“For the third month in the row, new listings have eased compared to last year, helping push the market toward more balanced conditions, despite the current environment of slower sales activity,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “This has helped prevent further declines in the unadjusted benchmark price.”New listings in the city of Calgary totaled 3,161 units in May, a 27 per cent decrease over last year. Meanwhile, total inventory levels for the month were 5,342 units, 16 per cent higher than last year, but eight per cent lower than May levels recorded over the past five years and three per cent lower than average levels over the past 10 years.Two measures of balance are the months of supply and the sales to new listings ratio. In May, the months of supply decreased to 2.43, while the sales to new listings ratio was 69 per cent, both within the norms for balanced conditions.“Back in January, higher inventory levels relative to sales activity caused months of supply to rise above five months,” said CREB® president Corinne Lyall. “While some challenges continue to exist for sellers, depending on the property type, price and location, the decline in the months of supply points toward more stability for both buyers and sellers.”

Year-to-date the detached sector recorded the largest decline in new listings at eight per cent. While overall inventory levels are 12 per cent higher than last year’s levels, they remain well below the five and 10 year averages for May.

Detached sales activity in May totaled 1,366 units, with the majority of transactions occurring below $500,000. While conditions are not as tight as last year’s market conditions, which favoured the seller, over the first five months of this year activity in this price range has remained relatively balanced.

“This segment of the detached market continues to have a good amount of consumer activity, as many have taken advantage of the improved selection compared to last year,” said Lyall. “While some have waited for steeper price declines, to this point it just hasn’t happened across all areas of the market. This is partly related to activity in the under $500,000 segment.”

Meanwhile, year-to-date apartment sales and new listings totaled 1,383 and 3,229 units respectively. The May apartment benchmark price of $294,800 increased by 1.20 per cent compared to last month, but remains 0.2 per cent below May 2014 figures.

The apartment sector continues to remain the only sector where prices have contracted relative to last year’s figures.

“While the resale market has recorded an easing of upward inventory pressures, the new home sector has started to record some gains in inventory,” said Lurie. “Current new home inventories remain relatively low. However, the overall impact on Calgary’s housing prices will ultimately depend on the duration of the economic slowdown and the amount of inventory build-up in the new home sector.”

 

New Listings DECLINE as Home Prices EASE!

EXERPT FROM TH REAL ESTATE BOARD

Improved sales to new listings ratio reduces inventory gains 

After the fifth consecutive monthly benchmark price decline in Calgary, the number of new home listings eased to 3,064 units in April, a decrease of 18 per cent over the previous year.

“With fewer buyers making purchase decisions and improved selection for resale, new home and rental property, sellers have been either adjusting their expectations on price or delaying their plans about when to list their home,” said CREB® president Corinne Lyall.

Sales activity in April totaled 1,957 units, 22 per cent below last year’s levels and nearly 15 per cent below April’s long term averages. Despite weak sales levels, the drop in new listings prevented strong gains in overall inventory levels and helped improve absorption rates in the market.

“While conditions continue to favour the buyer, both the months of supply and the sales to new listings ratio, which represent measures of market balance, tightened in April,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “If this trend continues, it should help prevent resale inventories from rising to previous highs and limit some of the downward price pressures we’ve been seeing.”

Benchmark prices for detached homes totaled $510,200 in April, which represents an unadjusted decline of 0.7 per cent from last month and 1.9 per cent higher than April 2014 figures. Meanwhile, apartment product recorded a monthly decline of 0.7 and a year-over year decline of 0.2 per cent

Year-to-date apartment sales activity has declined by 33 per cent, while new listings have risen by nearly eight per cent. Despite the recent shift in new listings, months of supply in this sector remain elevated, causing steeper monthly price declines and a year-over-year price contraction.

“There’s improved selection across all segments of the market, which takes some of the urgency away for buyers as they consider all of their options before making a purchase decision,” said Lyall. “Sellers have more competition and need to be aware of how much product is available in comparable neighborhoods.”

The detached sector continues to be the most balanced out of the three market sectors. For the second month in a row, the sales to new listings ratio and the months of inventory moved to levels that are more consistent with balanced conditions. However, the detached market does vary significantly depending on the price range.

“Higher priced properties in the detached sector saw a noticeable decline in absorption levels city-wide, indicating there is less demand relative to supply levels,” said Lurie. “This does not come as a surprise as many of the job losses in recent months have occurred in the higher paying sectors.”

Meanwhile, areas outside city limits are also impacted by the slower economic conditions. Year-to-date sales activity in the surrounding areas totaled 1,346 units, a 26 per cent decline. Despite positive growth following the first quarter, April benchmark prices totaled $434,800, 0.4 per cent below last month’s figures and 5.8 per cent above April 2014 figures.

“Market impacts on pricing are wide ranging and ultimately depend on the location, property type, specific features and amount of comparable supply available,” said Lyall. Both buyers and sellers need to be aware of the local market conditions and adjust their expectations accordingly.”

 

 

FEBRUARY 2005 VS FEBRUARY 2015

INTERESTING ….. This comment came from another realtor and I borrowed his words .. and I really had to share ………….. comments?

 

….Let’s put some perspective on our current market and compare Feb 2005 to Feb 2015.

Wow, there sure is a lot of bad news about oil prices and its impact on the Edmonton and Alberta economies.
You’d think the sky is falling with all the doom and gloom.
In the newspaper industry it is a know fact that bad news sells papers.
“If it bleeds, it leads” is the old newsroom saying.

Here’s a bit of perspective for you and your clients as you read stories about plunging oil prices, job losses and budget cuts.

February 2005:
• Oil prices were $47.96 US per barrel
• The Canadian dollar was $.805/US
• The Bank of Canada’s overnight rate was 2.5 per cent
• The prime rate was 4.25 per cent
• A five year fixed rate mortgage was 5.59 per cent
• It cost $1,846.92 per month for a $300,000 at 5.59 per cent rate
and a 25 year amortization
• The population of workers in Fort McMurray camps was about
10,000
We were in an economic BOOM!!!

Fast forward to February 2015
• Oil prices are $52 US per barrel
• The Canadian dollar is $.8033/US
• The Bank of Canada’s overnight rate is 0.75 per cent
• The prime rate is 2.85 per cent
• A five year fixed mortgage rate is 2.79 per cent
• It costs $1,387.31 per month for a $300,000 mortgage at 2.79
per cent rate and a 25 year amortization
• The population of workers in Fort McMurray camps is about
44,000.

The newspapers are saying THE SKY IS FALLING and many people are sitting on the fence about buying a home.

That doesn’t make sense when you look at the economic fundamentals.
DOES IT??

TOO EARLY TO TELL ….

by Kelsey Hipkin on Feb 20, 2015

Longevity key to housing market during oil price recovery: CREB

It’s still too early to tell how Calgary’s resale housing market will respond to recent gains in the price of oil, said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“We have to see how long – if [oil prices] continue to move up, how much it moves up, when it stops … That’s what we’re looking for. So it is still too early,” she said.

After significant declines starting in October, oil prices started to see some improvements recently before another slight drop this week. West Texas Intermediate, a U.S. grade of oil used a benchmark for North American oil prices was just over $53 US a barrel this week after dropping to near $40 earlier this year and is off 43.32 per cent compared to the same time last year.<span id=”more-9039″>

The Canadian dollar, meanwhile, is hovering around the $0.80 US mark.

As oil prices decrease, so too have Calgary home sales. In January, year-over-year sales in the city decreased by 39 per cent to 880 units, and corresponded with a 37 per cent increase in new listings to 3,286 units over the same period.

CREB® president Corinne Lyall said it’s important, however, to remember oil prices don’t directly affect the housing market.

“The more immediate question is about consumer confidence and what the decline in oil prices does to investment, jobs and migration,” she said.

“Buyers have a “wait-and-see” attitude right now because they are anticipating a potential drop in housing prices or they have concerns about their employment situation. If energy prices increase or continue to stabilize, I think we will see a rise in consumer confidence and more stability in the housing market.”

In fact, a recent report from TD Economics noted the overall market continues to show “remarkable resilience,” led by Calgary, Toronto, Hamilton and Vancouver.

Calgary home prices increased 9.8 per cent to $449,267 in 2014, the highest home price appreciation in major urban markets, according to the report.

It’s been a similar story so far this year. Last month, CREB® reported the average benchmark price for a home in Calgary remained relatively flat compared to December, and had increased 7.69 per cent to $459,100 from the same period a year ago.

As well as some price stability for sellers, Calgary’s current housing market has also created some new opportunities for would-be buyers.

In addition to increased inventory to shop from, the Bank of Canada surprised almost everyone in January by decreasing the overnight lending rate from one per cent, as it had remained since September 2010, to 0.75 per cent.

Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz cited decreasing oil prices as motivation behind the drop.
“Canada’s income from oil exports will be reduced, and investment and employment in the energy sector are already being cut,” he said.

A number of financial institutions have responded by lowering their respective interest rates. The TD report said the prime rate has come down by 15 basis points and special five-year mortgage interest rates of under three per cent have returned to the marketplace, something Lyall said buyers can use to their advantage.

“Buyers who have been waiting for more inventory to come on the market may find what they are looking for today. They certainly should take advantage of the lower interest rates if they are in a position to make a buying decision,” she said.

“Sellers should be prepared to realize their homes may take a bit longer to sell while buyers regain their confidence in the market. They also should pay attention to how many other comparable properties are available in their area to ensure they make good decisions about competitively pricing their home.

While interest rates over the next three months should be “some of the best in history,” buyers looking to capitalize should act now, said Real Estate Investment Network founding partner and senior analyst Don Campbell.

“A great time to finance or re-finance is about to be upon us, but that window will only be open for a short period of time,” he said.